Census Bureau Releases 2010 Counts for Smaller Areas

Today the Census Bureau released more detailed 2010 Census population totals and demographic characteristics for Colorado. These data provide the first look at population counts for small areas with race, Hispanic origin, voting age and housing unit data released from the 2010 Census.
These counts for Colorado show Colorado’s most populous counties are El Paso County (622,263), Denver (600,158), Arapahoe (572,003) and Jefferson (534,543).  El Paso moved up from the third most populous county in 2000 and Jefferson slipped to fourth most populous from second in 2000.
The counties with the largest increase in population were Douglas County gaining 109,699 people and El Paso County gaining 105,334.  Other counties with large increases in population include Arapahoe (83,107), Adams (77,746), and Weld (71,889).  Seventeen of Colorado’s 64 counties (26 percent) showed population declines.  The largest declines were in Prowers (-1,932), Otero (-1,480) and Huerfano (-1,151).
The counties that show the fastest growth in percentage terms are a little more diverse.  Douglas was again the fastest growing county in Colorado growing at 62.4 percent compared to the state as a whole growing by 16.92 percent.  Other fast growing counties include Weld (39.7 percent), Garfield (28.7 percent), Mesa (26.2 percent) and Eagle (25.3 percent).

The three largest cities remain Denver (600,158) followed by Colorado Springs (416,427), and Aurora (325,078) with Fort Collins (143,986) and Lakewood (142,980) rounding out the top 5.  The five municipalities to gain the most population were Colorado Springs (55,537), Aurora (48,685), Denver (45,522), Thornton (36,388) and Castle Rock (28,007).  The Denver metro cities of Wheat Ridge, Englewood, and Lakewood recorded population declines.

Fourteen municipalities doubled their size or more over the decade. Several municipalities in Northern Colorado were in the group of the fastest growing in the state: Firestone (431 percent), Severance (430 percent), Frederick (251 percent), Erie (188 percent) and Timnath (180 percent).

Colorado continues to become more ethnically and racially diverse.  Colorado’s Hispanic population (largest minority group) increased by over 300,000 or 41 percent during the decade compared to the total population which grew by 16 percent.  Blacks or African Americans grew by 19 percent, Asians by 45 percent, and White non-Hispanic by 9.9 percent. The increase in diversity occurred throughout the state, not just in the metro areas.  The largest increases in the minority population were in Arapahoe, Adams and El Paso.  However, large increases were also seen in the Eastern Plains counties of Yuma, Kit Carson, and Morgan and the Western Slope counties of Moffat, Garfield, Eagle and Mesa.

The official 2010 Census Redistricting Data Summary File can be used to redraw federal, state and local legislative districts under Public Law 94-171. The census data are used by state officials to realign congressional and state legislative districts in their states, taking into account population shifts since the 2000 Census. To access the detailed data from the Census Bureau, visit their website at: http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/ or through the American Factfinder at: http://factfinder2.census.gov/main.html

The State Demography Office has also published the Census 2010 counts and comparisons from Census 2000 for counties and municipalities on its website.  http://dola.colorado.gov/dlg/demog/2010censusdata.html  If you need help accessing the data from the Census website or from the State Demography Office website please contact us at: 303-866-3190 or 303-866-3096.

US Census Bureau releases the 2010 counts for the US and its states

Today the US Census Bureau released the 2010 counts for the US and its states.

The count for the US was 308,745,538.  This represents a 27.3 million increase over the decade.  The change in percentage terms was 9.7 percent.

In percentage terms, this was the second slowest growing decade -- second to the decade of the 30s. In absolute terms however, the 27.3 million ranks third fastest behind the decade of the 90s and the 50s.

For Colorado, the population count came in at 5,029,196 which is a 727,915 or 16.92 percent increase since 2000 and ranks our state as no. nine in percentage change over the decade.

Colorado will not gain or lose a US congressional seat.  All other states being equal, we would have had to have a population count of approximately 5.309 million to get an eighth seat.

American Community Survey Estimates 5 – Year (2005-09) and Census 2010 data to be released in December 2010

American Community Survey Estimates 5 – Year (2005-09) and Census 2010 data to be released in December 2010.

As many of you are aware, the US Census Bureau will be releasing American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year data on December 14th. This is the first time ACS data, characteristic information, has been made available for every county, city, town, and place, as well as for census tracts and block groups since the Census 2000 data was released in 2001.  The ACS has taken the place of the Decennial Census Long Form that asked the detailed social, economic, housing and demographic questions.

Also, the first Census 2010 state counts will be released December 21st to the President for reapportionment purposes.  It could be confusing that the two Census products are being released in the same month but it is fairly easy to learn how they are different and when to use each source.

The 2010 Census shows the number of people who live in the U.S. and the American Community Survey shows how people live.   Use data from the American Community Survey to obtain demographic, social, economic, and housing characteristics.  Use numbers from the 2010 Census to obtain counts of the population and their basic characteristics (sex, age, race, Hispanic origin, and homeowner status). For more information on Census 2010 please visit Census 2010 Main

ACS 5-year Data 2005-09

What does this mean for you, the data user? When is it appropriate and beneficial for you to use this data? We’ve compiled the following list of FAQs to help you understand the 5-year data. If you have additional questions or concerns, please feel free to contact our office: 303-866-3120 or barbara.mason@state.co.us or Elizabeth Garner at 303-866-3096 or Elizabeth.garner@state.co.us.

Q: Where do I find the ACS 5-year (2005-09) estimates?

A: The Census Bureau American Fact Finder site is the best place to start.   American Fact Finder.  From here, in the center area under “Getting Detailed Data”, select detailed data under the American Community Survey title, then select the ACS 5-year (2005-09).  A series of drop downs will help you to select your geography and variable.  You can also go to the American Community Survey website for more information and user guides.

Q: How accurate is the data?

A: The ACS is a survey, not a 100% enumeration (such as the 2010 Census, for example). Because only a percentage of the US population is actually surveyed, each data result has an associated Margin of Error (MOE). We encourage data users to consider the MOE and to take it into account when analyzing the 5-year data, as we do with all ACS products.

Q: How recent is the data?

A: The 5-year data being released in December 2010 was collected from 2005 through the end of 2009. This means that, of all the ACS data products, the 5-year data is the least current. As stated above, though, it’s the only ACS data available for the small geographies and populations.

Q: Can I use the ACS data to write a paper/report/article about recent economic, labor market and housing market changes?

A: No you cannot. Because the survey was conducted over such a long period of time, this data is not appropriate for analysis of recent trends, or for time-series analysis. We recommend the 1-year data for purposes of time-series analysis, and the most recent data.

Q: What is the data good for, then?

A: The 5-year data is a powerful and very useful tool for analysis of small areas- counties, towns and neighborhoods that previously only had access to new data every 10 years. It also allows us “wall-to-wall” data coverage across the state.

Q: How often will 5-year data be released?

A: All ACS products are released annually, on a rolling basis. For the 5-year data this means that in 2010 the 2005-2009 data will be released. In 2011, the 2006-2010 data will be released.

Q: What are other good resources for understanding the capabilities and limitations of the ACS 5-year data?

A: Start with the main American Community Survey web page and then click on the tab for “Guidance For Data Users”.  From this page there are several resources including an e-tutorial about the ACS and how to download and use the data.  There are also “Handbooks for Data Users” depending on your area of interest.  You can also contact our office for more information:  DLG.HelpDesk@state.co.us or Elizabeth Garner 303-866-3096 or Barb Mason 303-866-3120.

REMINDER: Annual Demography Meeting, November 5 - Arvada, CO

Presented by the Department of Local Affairs’ State Demography Office and the Northwest Council of Governments, the 2010 Annual Demography Meeting will be held from 8:30 am to 3:30 pm on November 5, 2010 at the Arvada Center for the Arts and Humanities.

Understanding demographics is critical for local governments, city planners and nonprofits. The 2010 Annual Demography Meeting will focus on Colorado-specific population and economic trends and forecasts, provide an update on the 2010 Census and demonstrate hands-on tools to access and use data from the American Community Survey. The DU Strategic Issues Panel will also present on international immigration and the effects of this public policy challenge.

The meeting will be an opportunity for local government and nonprofit personnel to directly connect with demography and economy experts to understand how forecasts and estimates are made and how these trends will facilitate or complicate planned services and programs.

Registration is $65 per person. For registration information, download the 2010 Annual Demography Meeting. Remember to register early, as they tend to sell out.

Colorado population is expected to reach 5.3 million by July 1, 2012

The population of Colorado, which is estimated at 5,074,528 for July 1, 2009, is expected to increase an average of 80,000 per year or grow at an annual rate of 1.6% over the next two years to reach 5.3 million by (July 1,) 2012.  This is compared to the average annual growth of 2.0% during the first five years of the decade and 1.7% per year over the past five years.  The state is expected to return to higher growth rates after 2015, as job growth is expected to increase to an average of over 60,000 per year.  This is compared to the average job growth of 10,000 per year this past decade.

These forecasts have been revised downward on the basis of new information regarding lower than expected job growth through 2010.  Data and information about the population and the factors that lead to population change are critical for program and local area planning.  Our office updates the population forecasts annually as new information about expected growth within a county is learned.  These forecasts are based on the updated 2009 final population estimates and a job forecast prepared in September of 2010. 

The revised population forecasts are available on our website at http://dola.colorado.gov/dlg/demog/pop_totals.html, select geography, and then select forecasts.  Job forecasts are also available at https://dola.colorado.gov/dlg/demog/economy_worksheets.html.

We expect net migration to exceed natural increase (births – deaths) between 2009 and 2010.  However, natural increase is forecast to nearly equal net migration in the two years following 2010.  Natural increase has exceeded net migration in only two other periods in Colorado’s recent history and those include the natural resource bust of the late 1980’s and the tech bust of the early 2000’s.  Similar to the tech bust of the early 2000’s, Colorado is not expected to experience net out migration.

For the ten year period thereafter, Colorado is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.8% through 2025, and then gradually slow to 1.1% reaching 8.1 million by 2040.

Colorado's rate of growth is expected to slow down over time is due to the expected slowdown in the rates of growth of the U. S. population.  The current average annual growth rates of the U. S. population are just above one percent -- 1.1% -- and are expected to slow by 0.1% each decade.  This national slowing results from the fact that fertility rates have been barely above the replacement level (of 2 children per woman) since the late 1960's. 

A major demographic factor affecting Colorado’s growth over the forecast period will be the aging of the baby boomers, the first of whom will turn 65 this next year.  As a result, Colorado’s median age is expected to increase from its current 36.3 to 37.7 over the next 30 years.  The total population ages 65 and over will increase an average of 6% per year over the next 10 years slowing to 3% per year from 2020 to 2040.  Colorado’s population age 65 and over will be nearly 20% of the total population by the year 2040 as compared to 10.5% today. 

The aging of the population will also affect the growth rates of the labor force.  Colorado total labor force participation rates will decline as a result of an increased share of labor force participants aging into lower participation rate age groups, and although participation rates for older persons are expected to increase, they are still well below that of prime working age participation rates.  In addition, the increases in labor force participation of women appear to have peaked and are not expected to increase to higher rates in the future.  As a result, growth in Colorado’s labor force is expected to decline from an annual average of 2.2% over the next ten years to 1.3% for the 20 year period following 2020.   As the state’s own labor force growth slows, a higher proportion of new net migrants to the state will be needed to meet job forecasts.

As Colorado’s population ages, it will become more diverse.  The share of Colorado’s population that is minority will grow from 27.1% today to 32.6% in 2040.  The fastest growing race and ethnic group will continue to be Hispanics.  The current median age of White non-Hispanics in Colorado is 40.3 as compared to the median age of Hispanics in Colorado which is 26.9.

Division of Local Government has a variety of mailing lists to fit your needs

DOLA's Division of Local Government has a variety of mailing lists available that provide updates on Budget and Finance, Demography and Planning.  Be sure to stop by our website and sign up to receive updates about upcoming training opportunities, hot topics and valuable information or click on the links below.

• Local Government Budget/Finance Mailing List

          Receive periodic email notifications regarding local government finance and budgeting issues, including
          statutory deadlines, upcoming training opportunities and other update.

• Office of Smart Growth

          Keep up to date with the latest information on conferences, workshops, grant programs, position
          vacancies, RFQs and RFPs, and more.

• State Demography Office

          The State Demography Office is the primary state agency for population and demographic information.
          Its data are used by state agencies to forecast demand for facilities and services.

•  Special Districts Mailing List

           To receive information regarding rules updates, statutory changes, compliancy filing deadlines, and
           other important notices.

July 2009 Population Estimates for the state, counties and municipalities available

The Department of Local Affairs' State Demography Office has completed its Vintage July 2009 Population Estimates for the state, counties and municipalities. 

The new data has been posted on DOLA's website at:  http://dola.colorado.gov/dlg/demog/index.html, select "Population" and "Population Totals" and then the geography you are interested in.  Please note, there have been revisions to the data series 2001-2008 based on revised migration and housing unit data. 

Also take a look at our information release link:  http://dola.colorado.gov/dlg/demog/presentations/2009estimatesinforelease.pdf

State Demographer weighs in on census data connecting economic climate to increase in school enrollment

In today's Denver Post article, "In tough economic times, Coloradans go back to school," DOLA's State Demographer, Elizabeth Garner, comments on census stats showing a connection between the tough economic climate and increased enrollment in higher ed.

You can read more about it in: In tough economic times, Coloradans go back to school, census stats show - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_16200855#ixzz10wr1D2FO

Budget 101 Trainings Offered Throughout the State and Online

DLG staff members Jarrod Biggs and David Keyser will be working in conjunction with the Colorado Government Finance Officer's Association (CGFOA ) to provide a Budget 101 course in a number of locations throughout the state (and via the web!).

The workshops are designed primarily for any first, second, or third year local government budgeters, but are open to all. The workshops will cover the basic statutory budget requirements, deadlines, certification of mill levies, revenue limitations and more. A CGFOA member also will be on hand to discuss their experiences in the context of budgeting. The workshops also will feature a presentation from the State Demography Office on state economic and demographic trends and their impact on budgeting.

Workshops are being held in Montrose, Frisco, Greeley, and Colorado Springs.

DOLA will be providing a Basic Statutory Requirements and Demography workshop via webinar on August 24 and 26 at 10 a.m. If you would like to take part in the webinar please contact Jarrod Biggs of DOLA’s Division of Local Government at jarrod.biggs@state.co.us, or (303) 866-4493.